Trading expectancy calculator
Measure what one trade is worth on average.
Calculator
Worked example
A strategy that loses more often than it wins, but whose average winner is larger than its average loser. These are the calculator's default inputs and the result it returns for them.
| Win rate | 45% |
|---|---|
| Average winner | 1.5 R |
| Average loser | 1 R |
| Trade count | 200 trades |
| Expectancy per trade | +0.13R |
| Expected total | +25.00R |
| Breakeven win rate | 40.0% |
The assumptions describe a positive edge before costs.
Questions
- What is trading expectancy?
- It is the average result per trade, measured in R. It is win rate times average winner, minus loss rate times average loser.
- How do I read the result?
- A positive number means the assumptions describe an edge before costs. For example, +0.20R means each trade adds a fifth of your risk on average over many trades.
- What is a common mistake?
- Judging expectancy from a handful of trades. A short run can look good or bad by luck. Also subtract costs such as commission and spread before you trust the number.