Backtest establishes an expectation from historical or simulated trades.
Edge Score combines several parts of the result and accounts for sample size.
A strong result is not a promise of future performance.
Read the amount and quality of evidence before the profit curve.
Read the result in order#
- Check the trade count and date range. A small or narrow sample contains less evidence.
- Confirm the result unit. Make sure currency, points, or R-multiples were interpreted as intended.
- Read Edge Score with sample size. The score is a summary, not the whole result.
- Inspect downside risk. Review drawdown, loss streaks, and recovery.
- Inspect consistency. Check whether one period or a few trades drive the result.
- Review robustness. Look at how the result behaves when the evidence is split or challenged.
Read Edge Score and sample size for the relationship between the score and evidence volume.
What a useful result tells you#
You should understand how much evidence supports the result, where the downside sits, and whether a small part of the sample drives most of the outcome.
If the result looks wrong#
Return to the upload and confirm:
- result column and unit;
- positive and negative signs;
- dates and time range;
- fees or commissions;
- missing or duplicate rows.
Fix the evidence before interpreting the result. Use Fix a failed upload when the preview or import is wrong.
Continue with live evidence#
When live trades are available, set up Validation to compare them with the same system's Backtest.