Random entry benchmark
Separate your entry edge from the bracket.
Calculator
Worked example
A trader who aims for a target twice the stop distance and wins less than half the time. These are the calculator's default inputs and the result it returns for them.
| Target distance | 2 R |
|---|---|
| Stop distance | 1 R |
| Your win rate | 40% |
| Trade count | 200 trades |
| Random win rate | 33.3% |
| Your edge over random | +6.7 pts |
| Your expectancy | +0.20R |
A driftless random entry has -0.00R expectancy on this bracket.
Questions
- What is the random entry benchmark?
- It is the win rate a random entry would get with the same target and stop, assuming price has no drift. It equals the stop distance divided by the target plus stop distance.
- How do I read the result?
- Your edge over random is your win rate minus the random win rate, in percentage points. A positive gap suggests the entry adds something beyond the bracket itself.
- What is a common mistake?
- Crediting the entry for a high win rate that comes from a close target. A close target wins often even at random, so compare against the benchmark first.